Fork B BTC carry verdict harness

The question

The research methodology itself — the pre-registration rigor protocol applied to every hypothesis below.

How it was tested

This is a live observability instrument rather than a pre-registered forward-edge hypothesis: it measures and reports a market condition for operator decision-support. It never auto-trades. Where a forward-edge claim exists, it is pre-registered separately and appears in the log with its own hash.

The outcome

LIVE 2026-06-12 (read-only measurement, charter-isolated — never trades). First verdict KILL (provisional): N −17% vs F* 21.6%, funding 1.5% ann, hedge costs 8%/yr. Standing trigger route ships DARK (FORK_B_TRIGGER_MODE=off); config + episode table await operator ratification. Revisits the retired crypto_carry class on new rails.

This hypothesis passed its validation and is running live as operator decision-support. It never auto-trades.