Forward-concentration governor (FCG risk-overlay)

The question

The research methodology itself — the pre-registration rigor protocol applied to every hypothesis below.

How it was tested

The hypothesis, its exact trigger, the outcome it predicts, and the pass/fail bar were written down and cryptographically hash-locked before any data was tested, then held through a mandatory cooling-off period. The backfill ran exactly once against those frozen parameters — no re-tuning, no curve-fitting — using adversarial statistics (stationary-bootstrap confidence intervals, multiple-testing correction, purged cross-validation with an embargo, and walk-forward out-of-sample splits). The specific trigger thresholds are proprietary and omitted here.

The outcome

RAN 2026-07-17 (attended, ONCE) → DATA_LIMITED — the PRE-REGISTERED honest path, mechanically reached (NOT a pass, NOT a kill). The genuinely-reconstructable window is the LIVE fund (2026-04-03→2026-07-16, 75 trading days; real NAV + broker-fill book reconstruction, PIT computeFactorRisk on strictly-trailing bars — the 2008-2017 reconstructed windows the spec named are impossible per the learned-signal-combination finding that per-date signal panels don't exist pre-2026-03-29). That window contains 2 decoupled days and ZERO ≥3-day decoupled episodes (realized-vol-LOW-while-concentration-HIGH — FCG's structural shot) vs MIN_DECOUPLED_EPISODES=8 → C1 has no power (CI lo NaN), C2 false, C3 report-only (drag 0.671 — the scalar WOULD have cost meaningful melt-up in this concentrated-and-rising window, non-binding context). DISPOSITION per pre-reg: FRG Layer-0 STAYS SHADOW (forward-risk-state-shadow-v1 persists per cycle since 7/07); the scalar EARNS live via the forecast-ledger as decoupled episodes accrue; promotion to FORWARD_CONCENTRATION_GOVERNOR=block re-tests C1/C2 when the live shadow history contains ≥8 episodes — a re-run on ACCRUED LIVE data is the pre-reg's own designated path, not a Rule #10 iterate. Harness was 4-lens adversarially reviewed pre-run (8 tighten-only fixes, 7/12-13 hardening run). data/backfill/forward_concentration_governor_2026-07-17.json. Run-once honored.

The backfill ran and concluded — the hypothesis did not fail, but the result is informational rather than a clean strategy-grade pass. See the outcome below.