Gain-protection governor (risk-overlay)

The question

The research methodology itself — the pre-registration rigor protocol applied to every hypothesis below.

How it was tested

The hypothesis, its exact trigger, the outcome it predicts, and the pass/fail bar were written down and cryptographically hash-locked before any data was tested, then held through a mandatory cooling-off period. The backfill ran exactly once against those frozen parameters — no re-tuning, no curve-fitting — using adversarial statistics (stationary-bootstrap confidence intervals, multiple-testing correction, purged cross-validation with an embargo, and walk-forward out-of-sample splits). The specific trigger thresholds are proprietary and omitted here.

The outcome

RAN 2026-06-23 → NOISE / DISCONFIRMED — SUBSUMED by the LIVE vol-target overlay (C1 no-subsumption killer test = exactly 0 on both the 18yr proxy and the live book; on a ~40%-vol book min(volTarget,governor) always resolves to vol-target). `GAIN_PROTECTION_OVERLAY` STAYS shadow (do NOT promote); the next distinct give-back layer is a gain-banking TRIM (its own pre-reg). Pure info-layer, zero trade-path. Rule #10: no iterate.

The backfill ran and the hypothesis failed its pre-registered bar. It is recorded and retired — not re-tested without a fresh, separately-registered hypothesis.