IPO event-study (lock-up drift + post-IPO dispersion)

The question

Do dated corporate-event shocks (IPO lock-up expiries, post-IPO drift) produce a tradeable, cost- and survivorship-honest edge — or do apparent effects dissolve under proper method?

How it was tested

This is a live observability instrument rather than a pre-registered forward-edge hypothesis: it measures and reports a market condition for operator decision-support. It never auto-trades. Where a forward-edge claim exists, it is pre-registered separately and appears in the log with its own hash.

The outcome

DISCONFIRMED 2026-06-04 (free read-only study, v1 7.0→v2 9.4 hardened). v2 systematic FMP universe + beta-adj + localization OVERTURNED the v1 lock-up 'pulse' (−7.5%→−0.9%, month-block CI straddles 0; NOT localized at expiry → beta+selection artifact). Survivorship quantified: dot-com 38% / modern 45% availability. Only generic Ritter post-IPO underperformance survives (modern median −6.9%@126d/−8.8%@252d) — slow, diffuse, short-only (borrow wall), not for this fund. Long-only path also negative. No pre-reg/engine/trade. Do NOT add survivor-only IPO feature to fractal v7.

The backfill ran and the hypothesis failed its pre-registered bar. It is recorded and retired — not re-tested without a fresh, separately-registered hypothesis.