IPO issuance-intensity top-signal

The question

Do dated corporate-event shocks (IPO lock-up expiries, post-IPO drift) produce a tradeable, cost- and survivorship-honest edge — or do apparent effects dissolve under proper method?

How it was tested

The hypothesis, its exact trigger, the outcome it predicts, and the pass/fail bar were written down and cryptographically hash-locked before any data was tested, then held through a mandatory cooling-off period. The backfill ran exactly once against those frozen parameters — no re-tuning, no curve-fitting — using adversarial statistics (stationary-bootstrap confidence intervals, multiple-testing correction, purged cross-validation with an embargo, and walk-forward out-of-sample splits). The specific trigger thresholds are proprietary and omitted here.

The outcome

ARCHIVED 2026-06-20 — DATA-BLOCKED + SUPERSEDED. Locked 2026-06-05 (Baker-Wurgler issuance axis) but its Ritter-CSV backbone went dead (URL 404/WAF; FMP legacy ipo_calendar 403) → never runnable as specified (the first-day-pop + record-deal-of-cycle legs need Ritter data). The issuance-top THESIS is now testable on FREE EDGAR data via the DISTINCT `net-share-issuance` pre-reg (filing-flow intensity, eligible 2026-06-26). This entry stays for the record; the original Ritter-dependent construct is not pursued (Rule #10 — the EDGAR version is a new construct, not an iterate-retry).

Superseded by a later version or failed a robustness check. Kept for the record.