Valuation & bubble structure

Liquidity-adjusted valuation (NDX/M2)

Live & validated

The question

Does today's market structure (valuation, concentration, liquidity-adjusted price) resemble historical bubble peaks, and what does that imply for forward tail risk?

How it was tested

This is a live observability instrument rather than a pre-registered forward-edge hypothesis: it measures and reports a market condition for operator decision-support. It never auto-trades. Where a forward-edge claim exists, it is pre-registered separately and appears in the log with its own hash.

The outcome

context read (on-demand tool); at/above dot-com peak — FUEL-LOAD not a trigger; v7/orthogonality candidate

This hypothesis passed its validation and is running live as operator decision-support. It never auto-trades.

Pre-registration record

Registered: —
Pre-registered: n/a (live instrument)
SHA-256 hash: —

The hash and timestamp are a contemporaneous, immutable record that the hypothesis and its success criteria were fixed before testing — not chosen with hindsight.

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