Regime-engine v2 (silent-bug fixes + DXY/FCI)

The question

Do forward-macro nowcasts — the rate-of-change of growth nowcasts, recession probability, and inflation expectations — time the broad market's risk-on/off regime, orthogonally to the cross-asset stress family?

How it was tested

The hypothesis, its exact trigger, the outcome it predicts, and the pass/fail bar were written down and cryptographically hash-locked before any data was tested, then held through a mandatory cooling-off period. The backfill ran exactly once against those frozen parameters — no re-tuning, no curve-fitting — using adversarial statistics (stationary-bootstrap confidence intervals, multiple-testing correction, purged cross-validation with an embargo, and walk-forward out-of-sample splits). The specific trigger thresholds are proprietary and omitted here.

The outcome

RAN 2026-07-06 (attended) → REVIEW / SPLIT: T1 CALIBRATION FIXES PASS (the point of v2 — MoM→YoY, HY pct-vs-bps, S&P→NDX) + T5 whipsaw + T6 ALFRED-vintage labeling + T7 FCI-overlay (Calmar 1.64× vs static, incremental DD vs vol-target ~0) PASS; but T2 credit DATA-UNAVAILABLE (BAMLH0A0HYM2 gapped — the v2.1 sibling's reason-to-exist), T3 + T4 (DXY fwd-63td NDX) FAIL. OPERATOR DECISION: adopt the validated T1 fixes shadow-first WITHOUT the failed DXY addition. data/backfill/regime_engine_v2_2026-07-06.json.

The backfill ran and concluded — the hypothesis did not fail, but the result is informational rather than a clean strategy-grade pass. See the outcome below.