Regime-engine v2.1 (Rule-#10 sibling, working data)

The question

Do forward-macro nowcasts — the rate-of-change of growth nowcasts, recession probability, and inflation expectations — time the broad market's risk-on/off regime, orthogonally to the cross-asset stress family?

How it was tested

The hypothesis, its exact trigger, the outcome it predicts, and the pass/fail bar were written down and cryptographically hash-locked before any data was tested, then held through a mandatory cooling-off period. The backfill ran exactly once against those frozen parameters — no re-tuning, no curve-fitting — using adversarial statistics (stationary-bootstrap confidence intervals, multiple-testing correction, purged cross-validation with an embargo, and walk-forward out-of-sample splits). The specific trigger thresholds are proprietary and omitted here.

The outcome

RAN 2026-07-06 (attended) → REVIEW / SPLIT: T1 calibration fixes PASS + T5/T6 PASS (mirrors v2), but the SUBSTITUTE data legs fail their forward-edge bars — BT2 (BAA10Y credit), BT7/BT8 (SECTOR_BREADTH_9), T3, T4 (DXY). The working-data sources are PLUMBED (validate-data PASS: breadth 6724d from 1999, BAA10Y 10124 obs) but do not EARN forward edge. Same operator decision as v2: adopt T1 fixes only. data/backfill/regime_engine_v2_1_2026-07-06.json.

The backfill ran and concluded — the hypothesis did not fail, but the result is informational rather than a clean strategy-grade pass. See the outcome below.