Analyst revision momentum

The question

Is the post-earnings-announcement-drift edge durable and broad-based across the population, or driven by a handful of outlier names? The core go-live question for the equities sleeve.

How it was tested

The hypothesis, its exact trigger, the outcome it predicts, and the pass/fail bar were written down and cryptographically hash-locked before any data was tested, then held through a mandatory cooling-off period. The backfill ran exactly once against those frozen parameters — no re-tuning, no curve-fitting — using adversarial statistics (stationary-bootstrap confidence intervals, multiple-testing correction, purged cross-validation with an embargo, and walk-forward out-of-sample splits). The specific trigger thresholds are proprietary and omitted here.

The outcome

RAN 2026-06-11 (grade-only — estimate leg not backfillable, operator-approved deviation) → NOISE. Net Sharpe −0.56 [CI −1.21,+0.12], NEGATIVE even gross (−0.43); 8/10 years negative; purged 1/5; corr(PEAD) 0.11 but combo Sharpe −0.19 vs PEAD-alone 0.53 — orthogonal AND bad. Grade-changes stay digest observability (never a trade claim). data/backfill/revision_momentum_2026-06-11.json. Rule #10: no iterate; REVISION_MOMENTUM_MODE stays off.

The backfill ran and the hypothesis failed its pre-registered bar. It is recorded and retired — not re-tested without a fresh, separately-registered hypothesis.