Fractal v6 cross-asset coherence

The question

Does today's market structure (valuation, concentration, liquidity-adjusted price) resemble historical bubble peaks, and what does that imply for forward tail risk?

How it was tested

The hypothesis, its exact trigger, the outcome it predicts, and the pass/fail bar were written down and cryptographically hash-locked before any data was tested, then held through a mandatory cooling-off period. The backfill ran exactly once against those frozen parameters — no re-tuning, no curve-fitting — using adversarial statistics (stationary-bootstrap confidence intervals, multiple-testing correction, purged cross-validation with an embargo, and walk-forward out-of-sample splits). The specific trigger thresholds are proprietary and omitted here.

The outcome

ROBUSTNESS_FAIL 2026-05-27; v5 stays live

Superseded by a later version or failed a robustness check. Kept for the record.